AKP, DTP congresses prove 'opening' faces tough times ahead

Differences in rhetoric and enthusiasm during this weekend’s general conventions of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, reveal the beginning of a tough period for the government-led Kurdish initiative.

Although the messages conveyed by the parties’ leaders signal that the parties will continue the process despite all obstacles, the DTP still tries to include Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, casting doubt on the health of the process. Ahmet Türk, co-leader of the DTP, went further by comparing Öcalan with Nelson Mandela.

In his lengthy speech on Saturday, Erdoğan reiterated his objectives with regard to the initiative: Let’s do whatever possible to end the bloodshed. The opposition’s contribution, according to Erdoğan, is sine qua non to the process, constituting another message he diffused Saturday. He clearly indicated that he was committed to moving forward with the process, especially through the next parliamentary elections. For many, the government’s Kurdish move will serve as the AKP’s most important instrument during the election campaign. That’s seen as the only way that the party can secure another term in Parliament with a clear majority.

This is why Erdoğan insists on getting the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP’s, support for the process. Generally speaking, the only party that could help the AKP succeed in this path is the CHP. Its absence would make life more difficult for the AKP. Similarly, Erdoğan remained silent about the DTP’s pro-PKK policies as it currently stands as the sole interlocutor. Erdoğan, however, spoke harshly against the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, and accused the nationalists of being the real dividers.

The move to solve the decades-old Kurdish issue will undoubtedly have major impacts on Erdoğan’s political career. If the government decides not to call an early general election next year, the country will face two major elections in 2011 and 2012. As a result, the consequences of this process will not only determine Erdoğan’s individual career but also his AKP’s. Through a strong statement issued at the congress, Erdoğan secured his party’s institutional support for the process. If Erdoğan wins, so will his party, and vice versa.

On the other hand, there was not a single hint about the details of the Kurdish opening, implying that the AKP’s cautious stance will continue and that the prime minister will wait until the best possible moment to outline his road map. For many, this is likely to happen after the CHP responds to the AKP about a meeting between Erdoğan and CHP leader Deniz Baykal.

On Sunday, the DTP’s congress was not comparable to the AKP meeting. There was less excitement and enthusiasm. It seemed as if the DTP deputies’ minds were elsewhere even though they were physically at the congress hall. Compared to the DTP officials, the AKP authorities were more confident about a solution to the Kurdish issue. As Türk said in his address, the entire DTP has begun to question the AKP’s sincerity. Of course, one of the reasons for this disappointment could be the pro-Kurdish party’s high expectations; they relentlessly try to convince the ruling party to consider the PKK and Öcalan.

The parties’ congresses prove that the gap between them is still large and needs political consultation to narrow it. A comprehensive constitutional amendment to guarantee that the achievements will be long-lasting is also on the DTP’s list. As the party cannot distance itself from the PKK and Öcalan, Erdoğan will be obliged to get closer with the CHP to improve the initiative’s chances of success. All eyes will once again be on the social democrats in the coming weeks.