After its inaugural convention in Bucharest last year, the Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum, or BSEEF, is taking a big step to build dialogue within the Eurasian region. According to Ambassador Ross Wilson, the Atlantic Council is organizing the forum in Istanbul this year in order to highlight the economic and cultural commonalities in the region and stimulate discussions on common problems.
“We want to stimulate a conversation among political, business and other leaders of the region about the region’s problems,” Wilson told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review in an interview last week. “In other words, it’s not so much Washington or [U.S.-based] think-tanks talking about problems. It’s the region’s own leaders talking about their problems. We want to facilitate that.”
The Atlantic Council is a Washington-based think-tank that “promotes constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs,” according to its website.
A key issue in the region that has an effect on trade, development and politics is energy. Some in the region either have energy resources that they export, like Russia, or are transit countries, like Turkey. However, other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are dependent on energy imports. Debate in recent years has focused primarily on Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, with some accusing Russia of translating its energy exports into “soft power.”
“I think that the countries of Central and Western Europe and Eastern Europe should be concerned, as any country anywhere, about being overly dependent on one source of supply for a critical component of their national economy,” said Wilson.
However, Wilson believes that the problem is not just about Russia, but about nations being able to “stand on their own feet.”
For countries looking to diversify energy supplies, Wilson said he believes there are several alternatives to Russia. Wilson himself was ambassador to Azerbaijan when construction began on the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan, or BTC, pipeline. BTC transports oil supplies from Azeri oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
“For me it’s not so much a Russia-specific issue, it’s just being dependent on one source of supply for a critical component [of their national economy] is not a sound strategy,” Wilson told the Daily News. “I think in part for that reason I supported [and] the U.S. government has strongly supported the development of Caspian Basin energy resources as an additional supply to what will always be large-scale purchases from Russia. Augment those with supplies that come from Kazakhstan, from Azerbaijan, maybe from Iraq at some point in the future and, if their policies change, maybe from Iran at some point as well.”
Energy issues have a large impact on politics and foreign relations in the region. Attempts to promote new energy supply routes must take into account Russian concerns and Wilson sees ways around any potential conflicts.
“As you look now at the future of gas pipeline developments, you sort of have the same thing being played out, whether and how Russia is going to be accommodated, whether and how Russian resources might actually help to make gas pipelines more viable, finance-able, and exactly what the routes of large-scale, new gas pipelines might be,” said Wilson. Speaking in reference to countries that he believes can be major energy suppliers to Eurasia, specifically Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Wilson said he believes “these are integral issues for these countries’ foreign policies.”
Turkey has a central role
The choice of Istanbul for this year’s forum “reflects the central role, the central position of Turkey ... as a major player throughout the region,” according to Wilson. He sees Turkey, along with Russia and increasingly China, as one of the big economic players in Eurasia.
“Broadly speaking, I think the decision reflected an appreciation of this absolutely crucial role that Turkey plays,” said Wilson.
He dismissed concerns that Turkey’s developing ties with Russia and Iran, particularly in energy, could negatively impact its integration with the European Union or its relations with the United States. On the contrary, Wilson said he believes Turkey’s role as an energy transit country can be of great benefit to Europe.
“Turkey’s central role ... as one of the main transit routes, if not the main transit route for Caspian Basin, Central Asian oil and natural gas to access international markets puts it in a uniquely suitable position to demonstrate its importance to European economic development,” said Wilson. “Turkey’s got a central role to play as Europeans seek to diversify their source of supply. I don’t think that Turkish relations with Russia or with Iran, either of those relationships, negatively impair this role.”
Wilson also said he believes Turkey’s economic ties with Iran will not negatively impact its relationship with the U.S., “so long as Turkey stands by commitments made by Turkish officials that it will cooperate with U.N. Security Council sanctions on Iran.”
Gas purchase agreements between Turkey and Iran, signed in 1996, currently provide roughly 13-14 percent of Turkey’s imported natural gas annually, according to Wilson. However, this gas purchase does not constitute an investment in Iran, a development which would put Turkey in danger of violating sanctions.
“My personal perspective is that Turkey’s relationship with Iran is more correct rather than a particularly warm relationship,” Wilson said. “Trade has been dominated by these gas purchases which have been highly unreliable for Turkey and there has been some growth in other areas as Turkish firms have found opportunities. I am sure that it will continue to be the expectation of the U.S. administration as well as [other] governments that Turkey will, as it has said it will, meet its commitments pursuant to the U.N. Security Council resolutions that have been passed.”
